Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 2.195839 2.328000 2.467477 2.626241 2.802697 2.993668 3.217156
2025-06-22 1.976824 2.154558 2.351177 2.586862 2.864492 3.184776 3.587729
2025-06-29 1.829807 2.030143 2.258702 2.542426 2.890572 3.311419 3.871173
2025-07-06 1.710805 1.923038 2.170766 2.486560 2.886583 3.388662 4.088223
2025-07-13 1.657211 1.886638 2.160527 2.519103 2.988429 3.601380 4.500083
2025-07-20 1.616518 1.861338 2.159588 2.559746 3.099862 3.832933 4.964231
2025-07-27 1.582622 1.841136 2.161947 2.602285 3.214247 4.076589 5.478227
2025-08-03 1.528926 1.792356 2.123841 2.586793 3.244944 4.200483 5.821381
2025-08-10 1.479841 1.746640 2.086548 2.568755 3.268682 4.313664 6.160835
2025-08-17 1.431549 1.699502 2.044539 2.540739 3.274315 4.397403 6.459778
2025-08-24 1.386959 1.655181 2.003898 2.511646 3.275088 4.471748 6.751357
2025-08-31 1.357421 1.629397 1.986824 2.514613 3.323724 4.627334 7.222687
2025-09-07 1.336191 1.614392 1.984451 2.539677 3.410088 4.858618 7.901831
2025-09-14 1.295409 1.571471 1.941470 2.502217 3.393926 4.909517 8.210820
2025-09-21 1.255830 1.528808 1.897085 2.460152 3.366910 4.937444 8.473805
2025-09-28 1.215196 1.483429 1.847183 2.407231 3.318269 4.920513 8.628631
2025-10-05 1.203061 1.476845 1.852056 2.438064 3.411447 5.179310 9.521838
2025-10-12 1.193913 1.473924 1.861800 2.476550 3.520161 5.481795 10.631499
2025-10-19 1.185692 1.471886 1.872516 2.516808 3.634852 5.812278 11.955868
2025-10-26 1.162511 1.447886 1.849899 2.502150 3.649339 5.933648 12.689198
2025-11-02 1.139843 1.423966 1.826546 2.485078 3.657975 6.043147 13.429842
2025-11-09 1.115725 1.397326 1.798253 2.458554 3.647062 6.107569 14.041538
2025-11-16 1.092423 1.371287 1.770078 2.431000 3.632357 6.161718 14.643244